NFL Picks 9/27/09

Packers -7 @ Rams

Rams offense isn’t as bad as it has looked, but the Packers will score 5 times on the Rams. No way the Rams score 4 times.

Vikings vs. 49ers +7 and take the under on 39.

This is going to be a war fought on the ground. Neither team gets ahead by more than 7 at any point. Plus, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Niners win outright. And that Viking D isn’t the same as last year.

Falcons +5 @ Pats

This one is a little more risky because if the Pats happen to come out of their funk, they could cover easy. But honestly, the Falcons are a great team all the way around and simply are better than the Patriots. Even if the Pats win it’ll be by 3. No way it is over 5.

Bears -3 @ Seahawks

If this game is in Chicago, they’d be favored by 14. The 12th man is hard to beat, but I believe the Bears could be the best team in the NFC now that Cutler has actually showed some growth.

Saints at Bills for 52 points – Take the over

Both teams score a lot of points, and give up a lot of points. Saints scores for 2 games = 45-27, 48-22. Buffalo scores for two games = 25-24, 33-20. Don’t worry about Fred Jackson grinding this game to a halt. As soon as the Saints score, the Bills will start trying to toss the ball all over the place.

If you parlay these and win, I get my usual 5%. Thanks.

UK vs. UF Recap

So let’s see how close I was to calling this game…

What is the one thing I said UK could not do? Let Florida get up big, early. Bingo.

Our scheme has to be flawless…Wait a sec, did we even have a scheme? Our guys were lost out there.

Play clean football, limit penalties. Ouch. 2 penalties that cost us first downs. 1 that caused us to re-punt and the 2nd punt was blocked for 6.

Play creative, yet conservative. I’ll give them credit, they tried. Sort of. They were conservative in not letting Hartline throw the ball all over the yard. But I really didn’t see any real plan of attack. It looked like simple plays. Run twice, throw on third down, punt. Cobb did throw the ball out of the Wildcat, once. Just a total disappointment on the gameplan.

Conservative alright: 2.8 yards per play.

And listen, anyone that says we played better in the 2nd half, knows very little about football. Florida backed off. They could have scored a hundred if they wanted.

Mike Hartline was the 3rd best QB to play in the game.

I totally missed my final prediction. But then again when the first thing I say is don’t let Florida jump out to a huge lead, and the 1st quarter ends 31-0, I should get a do-over.

P.S. Yes, it’s Florida. But from the play I saw tonight, don’t expect ANY of the SEC games to be any better.

P.P.S. Tebow ran the option 5 or 6 times tonight. As a defensive player, you’re taught to commit to one guy and stick with it. If I’m on D, and Florida runs an option and I have the chance to stick Tebow,  I don’t care if he pitches it and the guy gets a 90 yard touch, you’d have to surgically remove my lid from Tebow’s sternum.

Kentucky vs. Florida

https://i1.wp.com/a.espncdn.com/photo/2009/0717/nfl_g_jarmon_in_600.jpg

Listen, I know this site is defunct, but I don’t give a s—. I’ve listened to morons all week make their predictions about this game and none of them have any idea what they’re talking about. So I have to get this out of my system — and put it on record so I can come back and say I told you so just in case I’m right.

Florida is massively overrated. With that said, they’re still better than UK. Kentucky has forever been inferior to UF and it kills me, but this year is the first year that the Cats have the personnel to hang with the Gators. If our Cats have any hope of winning this game, they have to keep from getting into a shootout. The fewer points scored, the better for us. UK will have to fight to stay in it with X’s and O’s, not Jim’s and Joe’s. Our scheme has to be nearly flawless. So does our play. Limit turnovers and penalties, but that’s the key to just about any upset.

So that means, keep the ball out of Mike Hartline’s hands. If you do let him throw it, you have to make him look good. Make reads easy because last week Hartline was staring down receivers last week. He needs to work his progression. Last week against Louisville, he knew where he was going with the football before the snap and against Florida, he can’t do that. Coack Brooks and Joker Phillips are gonna have to be creative, yet conservative. Sounds tough, but expect a ton of screens, draws, shovel passes, a couple trick plays, and more “Wildcat” formations than we’ve seen against Miami and Louisville. I expect Randall Cobb to throw the ball at least once out of that Wildcat. I think you allow Hartline to take his shots, but only 2 or 3 times and only in the right situations. Give him three shots and if he hits one, it will be HUGE.

So there’s the gameplan… Now how does it work?

Kentucky has to fight early. Fight hard. Play like you only have 3 quarters to play. Because if they can do that, the 4th quarter can be played on pure adrenaline. In any upset, if the favorite lets the underdog hang around, the chances become higher and higher that David slays Goliath the longer that David isn’t knocked out of the fight, e.g. the Louisville game last week.

In the end, UK makes a name for itself by sticking around, but not by winning. Florida wins, 20-17 and the Wildcats still move UP in the polls.

Whew! I feel so much better.